The sole superpower status of the United States is being challenged by the second largest economy, China, and by the second strongest military power, Russia. In China, Xi is about to remove term limits so he can pursue unhindered his goal of making China the dominant superpower. In Russia, Putin announced new nuclear weapons that would overpower the US arsenal. While in the USA, Trump is starting a trade war with its allies as if encouraging China and Russia to take over world leadership.
Here are the videos for next week:
- Fareed: Is anyone paying attention to China?
- Putin unveils new nuclear weapons
- Trump Doesn't Think Twice About His Looming Trade War
Here are the other videos shown at the meeting:
- Xi Jinping's ideology now written into China's constitution
- Ex-Australia PM Rudd Isn't Surprised Xi Abolished Term Limits
- China to pass law allowing president for life
The "Thuycides trap" postulates that a rising power China) will always come into conflict with the current dominant power (the US)
ReplyDeleteI suspect though that the US will give China a pass as far as war goes, in favor of Iran, for two reasons: 1) the fear that China will be able to prevail in a war, and 2) the fact that Israel wants us to go to war with Iran, and the US always does what Israel wants.
In thinking about China it might be helpful to understand that it is experiencing, according to many China watchers, serious domestic problems—unemployment, housing shortages, stark and growing inequality, corruption, a growing older population (with too few children to support them), pollution, overreliance on exports, loss of traditional values and a national identity crisis, etc.—so there is more to their intentions than a simple desire for international dominance. Andrew Nathan, a China specialist at Columbia University, argues that Xi and his supporters are gambling that the consequences of concentrating power to manage these issues will be less damaging than failure to do so and states flatly that Xi’s “priorities are fundamentally domestic.” Xi sees chaos and unrest as the alternative to centralized authority, and not simply failure to rule the world. Obviously it is not in US interests to have China become the world’s dominant superpower, but it is likewise not in our interests to see a society of 1.3 billion people holding more than a trillion dollars in US debt drift into chaos. Perhaps their policies are wrongheaded, but given our own track record and current political conditions, it seems the US should be cautious in any efforts to influence internal Chinese politics. Furthermore, the current presidential administration seems uniquely unqualified to run even its own internal affairs let alone those of another country.
ReplyDeleteIt might also be useful to recall that China at one time had US warships patrolling the Yangtze River enforcing the unfettered trade in opium, from which some of the most prominent New England families (the Delanos, Cabots, Russells, Lows, and others) made a fortune, and to ask ourselves what our stance toward China might be today had we experienced similar intrusions along the Mississippi. Also, in the pursuit of dominance and power it’s hard to see how China and Russia are qualitatively different from Britain, Spain, France, and Portugal and others in previous centuries or from the US today. The pursuit of power and dominance are inherent to the modern human condition and do not indicate some nefarious quality unique to any people or nation. And both Putin and Xi have stated their motives quite clearly for all to hear: they say they want their countries to have a respected place in the community of nations. It may be naïve to assume that that’s all they want, but it may also be unwise not to take people seriously when they simply proclaim the universal human desire to be recognized and respected. Leaving aside any argument about what they may or may not deserve, or what they may or may not be willing to do to achieve their goals, failure to recognize this motive as fundamental and inherent to our species is to risk excluding them from our definition of humanity, and it doesn’t take much imagination to see where this kind of thinking leads.
It is easy to not see the Chinese as a people, but they are people with hopes and aspirations for their families very similar to ours.Where we are different is in the motivation of our values. Our values are motivated by individualism and love of money. Their values are motivated more by a sense of communal well-being, honor, and pride in their work. Because of our different motivations, different types of government may be needed for each people. They have over 3000 years of continuous history. We are struggling to make it to 300. Time is going to tell the story. But maybe we should be a little less arrogant as a people and at least examine what is working in other locations around the world.
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