Hurricane Dorian has grown to a Cat 5 and has dominated the news for the past week, and will not be over for another week. So instead of talking about the effects of Dorian, it may be instructive to discuss why the weather models failed to predict its intensity early on. Warmer waters caused by climate change is only part of what makes a hurricane so strong. It turns out that El Nino increases wind shear which breaks up hurricane formation. Weather models have difficulty in predicting when El Nino comes and goes, which can affect the predictions for the whole season.
Weather models are analogous to climate models. Is there something in climate forecasting like El Nino that can throw off the predication of the magnitude of the coming warming? The short answer is yes, clouds.
Here are the videos for the meeting:
- What to expect from the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season
- Weather pattern "El Nino" has come to an end
- Tracking the path of Hurricane Dorian
- El Niño and Why It's So Hard To Predict the Weather
- Gavin Schmidt: The emergent patterns of climate change
- Kate Marvel: Can clouds buy us more time to solve climate change?
Here is the other video shown at the meeting:
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