How long will the pandemic last? Laurie Garrett says that thirty-six months is the best case. See the video below. It should be cued to 24:41 where she explains why it will take at least 36 months. You can scroll back to see the rest of the video. It is long but worth it.
So what does Laurie Garrett know? Here is a TED Talk she did back in 2007.
NJ Gov. Christie (NY Post, "Chris: Folks gonna die") said: "Of course, everybody wants to save every life they can--but the question is, towards what end, ultimately? .... We've got to let some of these folks get back to work, because if we don't, we're going to destroy the American way of life in these families--and it will be years and years before we can recover."
ReplyDeleteThe WaPo had a couple articles today re the price being paid for lockdown. 1) severe child abuse resulting from families being cooped up, 2) Mental health problems resulting from isolation from human contact.
Balancing caution in order to save lives against letting go a bit to preserve quality of life is a real Solomonic dilemma.
I don't see how we can continue like this for a year, much less the "conservative" estimate of 36 months that the speaker suggests; in fact, she says this virus may change our way of life forever. Should we instead try for the "herd immunity?" (I probably shouldn't have much to say about this since, being 91 years old, I don't have that much to lose any more.
Obviously, we will not stay in lockdown for 36 months. We will have to open up smartly. We need to observed how other countries are managing. The UK tried herd immunity back in March. They are now paying the price. The jury is still out on Sweden.
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